AI Forecast Ledger^™

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The Scorecard

Every AI forecast on the ledger, counted straight from the record. Rebuilt from the record on every update.

1of5

settled AI forecasts came true (20%)

6 forecasts still open, not counted until settled. Newest verdict 10 Sep 2026.

By state

1 Hit
4 Missed
5 On track
1 Pending

Hit1

IMO gold medalEliezer Yudkowsky (bet vs. Paul Christiano) · 2025

Missed4

Radiologists obsoleteGeoffrey Hinton · 2021
AI smarter than any human by end of 2025Elon Musk · Dec 2025
AI agents join the workforce in 2025Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO) · Dec 2025
AI writes 90% of codeDario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) · Mar 2026

On track5

Superhuman coderAI-2027 report · Dec 2027
Turing test passed by 2029Ray Kurzweil · 2029
AI passes every human test by 2029Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO) · Mar 2029
LeCun: human-level AI a decade outYann LeCun (Meta Chief AI Scientist) · 2034
Hassabis: AGI in 5–10 yearsDemis Hassabis (Google DeepMind CEO) · 2035

Pending1

Weakly-general AIMetaculus community forecast · 2028

By topic

Topic	Hit	Missed	Open
timelines	0	0	4
capabilities	0	2	1
benchmarks	1	0	1
economy	0	1	0
labor	0	1	0

Latest verdicts

On trackgraded 10 Sep 2026

Human-level AI is years away, if not a decade — and will not come from LLMs alone (counterpoint claim)

Yann LeCun (Meta Chief AI Scientist)

Claimed: Oct 2024
Deadline: 2034
Receipt: METR — Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks Mar 2025

On trackgraded 3 Sep 2026

AGI arrives in the next five to ten years (2030–2035)

Demis Hassabis (Google DeepMind CEO)

Claimed: Apr 2025
Deadline: 2035
Receipt: SWE-bench Verified leaderboard Sep 2026

On trackgraded 17 Aug 2026

AI reaches human-level intelligence and passes the Turing test by 2029

Ray Kurzweil

Claimed: Jun 2024
Deadline: 2029
Receipt: Google DeepMind — Advanced Gemini Deep Think at IMO 2025 Jul 2025

Every verdict, newest first →

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