MissedlaborDeep learning outperforms radiologists within five years, so we should stop training them now
Missed · called by 2021
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US radiologist workforce headcount vs. 201617.3 % growth in US radiologist headcount, 2014-2023 (as of 2023)
Verified blind: DeepSeek V4 + Grok — agree
How it's graded
Met if AI had displaced human radiologists (falling demand / headcount) by ~2021; failed if the workforce kept growing and AI became a complement
17.3% growth in US radiologist headcount, 2014-2023as of 2023
The other readings measure something else, so they are not joined into a line. All of them are in the table.
Receipts · 3
People should stop training radiologists now. It’s just completely obvious within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists
UAB Reporter (quoting Geoffrey Hinton, 2016) archived↗context · not model-verified · 2022-12
the number of radiologists increased 17.3% (from 30,723 to 36,024)
a significant radiology workforce shortage
Primary sourceRecording: Creative Destruction Lab archived↗ · 2016. The speaker’s own words are in the recording; the quote text above comes from the press report.
Ledger history
- 2026-06-24: seeded
- 2026-06-25: demoted pending bulletproof re-grade
- 2026-07-02: Target date (2021) long past. Neiman HPI (measurement): radiologist headcount grew 17.3% (30,723 to 36,024) from 2014-2023; Nature (2025) corroborates a persistent shortage. Graded wrong per rubric.
- 2026-08-17: Verdict 'wrong' remains correct: the 2021 target is long past and the radiologist workforce grew rather than collapsed. A fresher Neiman HPI release (Feb 2025, neimanhpi.org) refreshes the workforce…
- 2026-09-14: Verdict 'wrong' remains correct (2021 target long past; the workforce grew rather than collapsed). A fresh read of the Neiman HPI release (fetched 2026-09-14) provides a concrete headcount…
- 2026-11-03: The verdict 'wrong' remains correct (2021 target long past; the workforce grew rather than collapsed). A fresh read of the Neiman HPI release (fetched 2026-11-03) provides the same concrete…
- 2026-11-05: Linked the primary source: the organiser’s recording of the talk (Creative Destruction Lab). The quote text still comes from the press report in the receipts. Verdict unchanged.