AI Forecast Ledger™
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Case file No. 05 · AI Forecast Ledger

Pendingtimelines

The first weakly general AI system is publicly announced around 2028

by Metaculus community forecast · called 2020

Pending · due 2028

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Pending

Public announcement date vs. the live community medianunknown — pending a direct read of the live Metaculus median

How it's graded

Met if a system meeting the Metaculus weakly-general-AI resolution criteria is publicly announced near the community median

Receipts

No verified evidence yet.

Ledger history
  • 2026-06-24: seeded; awaiting a verifiable read of the Metaculus median before grading

Every verdict on the ledger is graded against dated, archived third-party evidence and blind-verified by two independent models.

CiteAI Forecast Ledger, “Weakly-general AI” (Metaculus community forecast, 2020), https://aiforecastledger.com/claims/metaculus-weakly-general-ai-2028.html, last reviewed 2026-06-24. CC BY 4.0.