MissedeconomyIn 2025, the first AI agents join the workforce and materially change the output of companies
Missed · called by Dec 2025
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Missed · called by Dec 2025
Documented production deployments of autonomous agents with material output impactunknown — pending a formal grade; coding agents resolve real GitHub issues autonomously, broader workforce-agent evidence uncollected
Verified blind: GLM-5.2 + Grok — agree
Met if by end of 2025 autonomous AI agents are deployed in real companies doing economically material work (documented output changes), beyond copilots and chat assistants; failed if agent deployments remain pilots without material output impact
best AI agents are not currently able to carry out substantive projects by themselves or directly substitute for human labor.
METR — Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks archived↗ · 2025-03-19
The 95% failure rate for enterprise AI solutions
Fortune — MIT NANDA report on GenAI pilots archived↗ · 2025-08-18
Ledger history
- 2026-07-15: Target date 2025-12 is past. Two recognized-domain measurements confirm AI agents did not materially change company output: METR (metr.org, measurement) states agents cannot carry out substantive…