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Case file No. 08 · AI Forecast Ledger

Missedeconomy

In 2025, the first AI agents join the workforce and materially change the output of companies

Missed · called by Dec 2025

2 receiptsOpen verificationClose

Missed

Missed · called by Dec 2025

Documented production deployments of autonomous agents with material output impactunknown — pending a formal grade; coding agents resolve real GitHub issues autonomously, broader workforce-agent evidence uncollected

Verified blind: GLM-5.2 + Grok — agree

How it's graded

Met if by end of 2025 autonomous AI agents are deployed in real companies doing economically material work (documented output changes), beyond copilots and chat assistants; failed if agent deployments remain pilots without material output impact

Receipts · 2
Ledger history
  • 2026-07-15: Target date 2025-12 is past. Two recognized-domain measurements confirm AI agents did not materially change company output: METR (metr.org, measurement) states agents cannot carry out substantive…

Every verdict on the ledger is graded against dated, archived third-party evidence and blind-verified by two independent models.