On tracktimelinesHuman-level AI is years away, if not a decade — and will not come from LLMs alone (counterpoint claim)
On track · due 2034
3 receiptsOpen verificationClose▾
Arrival date and architecture of the first accepted human-level systemunknown — long-dated counterpoint, tracking
Verified blind: GLM-5.2 + Grok — agree
How it's graded
Met if human-level AI does NOT appear before ~2030 (vindicating the skeptic call); failed if a widely accepted human-level system arrives well before the end of the decade or emerges primarily from LLM scaling
Receipts · 3
the best AI agents are not currently able to carry out substantive projects by themselves or directly substitute for human labor.
METR — Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks archived↗ · 2025-03-19
Claude 4.5 Opus | Sonar Foundation Agent | 79.20
SWE-bench Verified leaderboard archived↗ · unknown
“It’s going to take years before we can get everything here to work, if not a decade,” said LeCun. “Mark Zuckerberg keeps asking me how long it’s going to take.”
TechCrunch (Hudson Forum keynote) archived↗ · 2024-10-16
Ledger history
- 2026-09-10: Target date 2034 is far in the future, so on-track/partial is the ceiling. LeCun's skeptic call is currently holding: METR (metr.org, measurement, different org) measures that the best agents still…