On tracktimelinesHuman-level AI is years away, if not a decade — and will not come from LLMs alone (counterpoint claim)
On track · due 2034
3 receiptsOpen verificationClose▾
Arrival date and architecture of the first accepted human-level system79.20 % resolved on SWE-bench Verified (top agent, bash-only default view) (as of 2026-11-03)
Verified blind: GLM-5.2 + Grok — agree
How it's graded
Met if human-level AI does NOT appear before ~2030 (vindicating the skeptic call); failed if a widely accepted human-level system arrives well before the end of the decade or emerges primarily from LLM scaling
79.20% resolved on SWE-bench Verified (top agent, bash-only default view)as of 2026-11-03
A single reading is not yet a trajectory. The figure appears once a second measurement lands.
Table view
| As of | Measured (% resolved on SWE-bench Verified (top agent, bash-only default view)) | Receipt |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 79.20 | source |
Receipts · 3
the best AI agents are not currently able to carry out substantive projects by themselves or directly substitute for human labor.
METR — Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks archived↗ · 2025-03-19
Claude 4.5 Opus | Sonar Foundation Agent | 79.20
SWE-bench Verified leaderboard archived↗ · unknown
“It’s going to take years before we can get everything here to work, if not a decade,” said LeCun. “Mark Zuckerberg keeps asking me how long it’s going to take.”
TechCrunch (Hudson Forum keynote) archived↗ · 2024-10-16
Primary sourceRecording: Hudson Forum archived↗ · 2024-10. The speaker’s own words are in the recording; the quote text above comes from the press report.
Ledger history
- 2026-09-10: Target date 2034 is far in the future, so on-track/partial is the ceiling. LeCun's skeptic call is currently holding: METR (metr.org, measurement, different org) measures that the best agents still…
- 2026-11-03: The verdict 'on-track' remains correct (target 2034 is in the future). A fresh read of the SWE-bench Verified leaderboard (fetched 2026-11-03) confirms the top bash-only entry remains at 79.20%…
- 2026-11-05: Linked the primary source: the organiser’s recording of the talk (Hudson Forum). The quote text still comes from the press report in the receipts. Verdict unchanged.