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Case file No. 12 · AI Forecast Ledger

Pendingtimelines

Human-level AI is years away, if not a decade — and will not come from LLMs alone (counterpoint claim)

by Yann LeCun (Meta Chief AI Scientist) · called 2024-10

Pending · due 2034

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Pending

Pending · due 2034

Arrival date and architecture of the first accepted human-level systemunknown — long-dated counterpoint, tracking

How it's graded

Met if human-level AI does NOT appear before ~2030 (vindicating the skeptic call); failed if a widely accepted human-level system arrives well before the end of the decade or emerges primarily from LLM scaling

Receipts · 1

  • “It’s going to take years before we can get everything here to work, if not a decade,” said LeCun. “Mark Zuckerberg keeps asking me how long it’s going to take.”

    TechCrunch (Hudson Forum keynote)  ·  2024-10-16

Every verdict on the ledger is graded against dated, archived third-party evidence and blind-verified by two independent models.