AI Forecast Ledger^™

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Verdicts

Every graded AI forecast, newest decision first. Each one links to its full case file and the source it rests on.

10 graded forecasts · 1 hit · 4 missed · see the scorecard

On trackgraded 10 Sep 2026

Human-level AI is years away, if not a decade — and will not come from LLMs alone (counterpoint claim)

Yann LeCun (Meta Chief AI Scientist)

Claimed: Oct 2024
Deadline: 2034
Receipt: METR — Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks Mar 2025

On trackgraded 3 Sep 2026

AGI arrives in the next five to ten years (2030–2035)

Demis Hassabis (Google DeepMind CEO)

Claimed: Apr 2025
Deadline: 2035
Receipt: SWE-bench Verified leaderboard Sep 2026

On trackgraded 17 Aug 2026

AI reaches human-level intelligence and passes the Turing test by 2029

Ray Kurzweil

Claimed: Jun 2024
Deadline: 2029
Receipt: Google DeepMind — Advanced Gemini Deep Think at IMO 2025 Jul 2025

On trackgraded 16 Aug 2026

Within five years (by early 2029), AI does well on every single test the computer-science industry can put in front of it

Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO)

Claimed: Mar 2024
Deadline: Mar 2029
Receipt: Google DeepMind — Gemini Deep Think at IMO 2025 Jul 2025

Missedgraded 15 Jul 2026

In 2025, the first AI agents join the workforce and materially change the output of companies

Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO)

Claimed: Jan 2025
Deadline: Dec 2025
Receipt: Fortune — MIT NANDA report on GenAI pilots Aug 2025

On trackgraded 15 Jul 2026 · re-checked 10 Sep 2026

A superhuman coder exists by end of 2027

AI-2027 report

Claimed: Apr 2025
Deadline: Dec 2027
Receipt: SWE-bench Verified leaderboard Jul 2026

Missedgraded 5 Jul 2026

AI smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025

Elon Musk

Claimed: Apr 2024
Deadline: Dec 2025
Receipt: ARC Prize — ARC-AGI-2 and ARC Prize 2025 Mar 2025

Missedgraded 3 Jul 2026 · re-checked 14 Sep 2026

Within three to six months AI will be writing 90% of code, and within a year essentially all of it

Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO)

Claimed: Mar 2025
Deadline: Mar 2026
Receipt: arXiv (Daniotti et al.) Jun 2025

Missedgraded 2 Jul 2026 · re-checked 14 Sep 2026

Deep learning outperforms radiologists within five years, so we should stop training them now

Geoffrey Hinton

Claimed: 2016
Deadline: 2021
Receipt: Harvey L. Neiman Health Policy Institute 2024

Hitgraded 25 Jun 2026

An AI built before the contest earns a gold medal at the International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025

Eliezer Yudkowsky (bet vs. Paul Christiano)

Claimed: Feb 2022
Deadline: 2025
Receipt: Google DeepMind Jul 2025

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