AI Forecast Ledger
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Case file No. 10 · AI Forecast Ledger

On tracktimelines

AGI arrives in the next five to ten years (2030–2035)

On track · due 2035

3 receiptsOpen verificationClose

On track

Public demonstration of a generally human-level systemunknown — long-dated claim, tracking

Verified blind: GLM-5.2 + Grok — agree

How it's graded

Met if a system widely accepted as AGI (general human-level capability across domains) is publicly demonstrated between 2030 and 2035; graded early as wrong only if Hassabis's stated criteria are clearly unmet by end of 2035

Receipts · 3

Ledger history
  • 2026-09-03: Target date 2035 is well in the future, so on-track/partial is the ceiling. Two recognized-domain evidence items with different origin_orgs (both role:measurement) show concrete capability progress…

Every verdict on the ledger is graded against dated, archived third-party evidence and blind-verified by two independent models.