On tracktimelinesAGI arrives in the next five to ten years (2030–2035)
On track · due 2035
3 receiptsOpen verificationClose▾
Public demonstration of a generally human-level system79.20 % resolved on SWE-bench Verified (top agent, bash-only default view) (as of 2026-11-03)
Verified blind: GLM-5.2 + Grok — agree
How it's graded
Met if a system widely accepted as AGI (general human-level capability across domains) is publicly demonstrated between 2030 and 2035; graded early as wrong only if Hassabis's stated criteria are clearly unmet by end of 2035
79.20% resolved on SWE-bench Verified (top agent, bash-only default view)as of 2026-11-03
A single reading is not yet a trajectory. The figure appears once a second measurement lands.
Table view
| As of | Measured (% resolved on SWE-bench Verified (top agent, bash-only default view)) | Receipt |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 79.20 | source |
Receipts · 3
Claude 4.5 Opus | Sonar Foundation Agent | 79.20
SWE-bench Verified leaderboard archived↗ · 2026-09-03
has been doubling approximately every 7 months for the last 6 years
METR — Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks archived↗ · 2025-03-19
In the next five to ten years, I think.
CBS News — 60 Minutes interview transcript archived↗ · 2025-04-20
Ledger history
- 2026-09-03: Target date 2035 is well in the future, so on-track/partial is the ceiling. Two recognized-domain evidence items with different origin_orgs (both role:measurement) show concrete capability progress…
- 2026-11-03: The verdict 'on-track' remains correct (target 2035 is in the future). A fresh read of the SWE-bench Verified leaderboard (fetched 2026-11-03) confirms the top bash-only entry remains at 79.20%…