MissedcapabilitiesAI smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025
Missed · called by Dec 2025
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Missed · called by Dec 2025
Broad cognitive capability vs. the single most capable humanunknown — pending a formal grade; frontier models lead on many benchmarks but no accepted demonstration of exceeding the smartest human across domains
Verified blind: GLM-5.2 + Grok — agree
Met if, by end of 2025, a deployed AI system demonstrably exceeds the most capable individual human across the breadth of cognitive tasks (not just benchmarks); failed if leading systems remain below top human experts in substantial domains
best AI agents are not currently able to carry out substantive projects by themselves or directly substitute for human labor.
METR — Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks archived↗ · 2025-03-19
Pure LLMs score 0% on ARC-AGI-2
ARC Prize — ARC-AGI-2 and ARC Prize 2025 archived↗ · 2025-03-24
Ledger history
- 2026-07-05: Target date 2025-12 is past. The claim required AI to exceed the most capable human across the breadth of cognitive tasks by end of 2025. Two recognized-domain measurements show this did not occur…