MissedcapabilitiesAI smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025
Missed · called by Dec 2025
3 receiptsOpen verificationClose▾
Broad cognitive capability vs. the single most capable human0% Pure LLM score on ARC-AGI-2 (as of 2025-03-24)
Verified blind: GLM-5.2 + Grok — agree
How it's graded
Met if, by end of 2025, a deployed AI system demonstrably exceeds the most capable individual human across the breadth of cognitive tasks (not just benchmarks); failed if leading systems remain below top human experts in substantial domains
0%Pure LLM score on ARC-AGI-2as of 2025-03-24
A single reading is not yet a trajectory. The figure appears once a second measurement lands.
Table view
| As of | Measured (Pure LLM score on ARC-AGI-2) | Receipt |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-24 | 0% | source |
Receipts · 3
“My guess is that we’ll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year,” Musk said in a livestreamed interview on his social network X.
The Guardian archived↗context · not model-verified · 2024-04-09
best AI agents are not currently able to carry out substantive projects by themselves or directly substitute for human labor.
METR — Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks archived↗ · 2025-03-19
Pure LLMs score 0% on ARC-AGI-2
ARC Prize — ARC-AGI-2 and ARC Prize 2025 archived↗ · 2025-03-24
Primary sourceRecording: Norges Bank Investment Management (In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen) · 2024-04. The speaker’s own words are in the recording; the quote text above comes from the press report.
Ledger history
- 2026-07-05: Target date 2025-12 is past. The claim required AI to exceed the most capable human across the breadth of cognitive tasks by end of 2025. Two recognized-domain measurements show this did not occur…
- 2026-11-03: The verdict 'wrong' remains correct (target 2025-12 passed without AI exceeding the most capable human across cognitive domains). A fresh read of the ARC Prize source confirms a concrete measurement…
- 2026-11-05: Linked the primary source: the recording of the April 2024 X Spaces interview, published by Norges Bank Investment Management. The quote text still comes from the press report in the receipts. Verdict…