Leaderboard
Claimants ranked by how their settled AI forecasts resolved. Each figure is hits over settled forecasts, counted straight from the record on every update.
A claimant is ranked once 3 of their forecasts have settled (hit or missed). Open and contested forecasts are not counted.
No claimant has 3 settled forecasts yet, so nobody is ranked. The leaderboard fills in as verdicts settle.
Not yet ranked
| Claimant | Settled | Open |
|---|---|---|
| AI-2027 report | 0 | 1 |
| Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) | 1 | 0 |
| Demis Hassabis (Google DeepMind CEO) | 0 | 1 |
| Eliezer Yudkowsky (bet vs. Paul Christiano) | 1 | 0 |
| Elon Musk | 1 | 0 |
| Geoffrey Hinton | 1 | 0 |
| Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO) | 0 | 1 |
| Metaculus community forecast | 0 | 1 |
| Ray Kurzweil | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO) | 1 | 0 |
| Yann LeCun (Meta Chief AI Scientist) | 0 | 1 |