MissedcapabilitiesWithin three to six months AI will be writing 90% of code, and within a year essentially all of it
Missed · called by Mar 2026
3 receiptsOpen verificationClose▾
Share of production code generated by AI vs. written by humans30.1 % of Python functions (US contributors) written by AI, December 2024 (as of 2024-12)
Verified blind: DeepSeek V4 + Grok — agree
How it's graded
Met if, broadly across software, AI is generating ~90% of code by late 2025; failed if human-written code stays the clear majority of production software
30.1% of Python functions (US contributors) written by AI, December 2024as of 2024-12
A single reading is not yet a trajectory. The figure appears once a second measurement lands.
Table view
| As of | Measured (% of Python functions (US contributors) written by AI, December 2024) | Receipt |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-12 | 30.1 | source |
Trajectory unverified indicators — not graded receipts
- Sep 2025By late 2025: AI writing ~90% of code (the 3–6 month call) missedSix months on, no verified industry-wide 90% figure materialized; independent analyses put AI's share far lower.assessed Jun 2026indication↗
- Mar 2026By Mar 2026: AI writing essentially all code (the 1-year call) missedA year on, human-written code remains the clear majority of production software; even Anthropic's internal 90% claim is disputed.assessed Jun 2026indication↗
Receipts · 3
AI could soon write 90% of software code in as few as three to six months, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said at a Council on Foreign Relations event on March 10.
Yahoo Finance (Amodei at the Council on Foreign Relations, March 2025) archived↗context · not model-verified · 2025-03
By December 2024, AI wrote an estimated 30.1% of Python functions from U.S. contributors
arXiv (Daniotti et al.) archived↗ · 2025-06
20% to 30% of code inside the company’s repositories was “written by software” — meaning AI
TechCrunch archived↗ · 2025-04-29
Ledger history
- 2026-06-24: seeded
- 2026-06-25: demoted pending bulletproof re-grade
- 2026-06-26: added trajectory checkpoints — both 3–6mo and 1-yr milestones missed
- 2026-07-03: The claim's target date (2026-03) is in the past. The prediction was that AI would be writing 90% of code by late 2025/early 2026. Source 7 (arXiv, measurement) shows that by December 2024, AI wrote…
- 2026-09-14: Verdict 'wrong' remains correct (target 2026-03 passed with AI's share of production code far below 90%). A fresh read of the arXiv study supplies the best quantified independent measurement of…