AI Forecast Ledger™
↩ Return to the record

Case file No. 08 · AI Forecast Ledger

On tracktimelines

AI reaches human-level intelligence and passes the Turing test by 2029

On track · due 2029

3 receiptsOpen verificationClose▾

On track

Rigorous adversarial Turing-test pass35/42 IMO 2025 score (gold-medal standard) (as of 2025-07-21)

Verified blind: GLM-5.2 + Grok — agree

How it's graded

Met if before end of 2029 an AI passes a rigorous adversarial Turing test (expert judges, extended sessions) or an equivalent accepted human-level-intelligence demonstration; failed otherwise

Rigorous adversarial Turing-test pass1 measured point

35/42IMO 2025 score (gold-medal standard)as of 2025-07-21

A single reading is not yet a trajectory. The figure appears once a second measurement lands.

Table view
As ofMeasured (IMO 2025 score (gold-medal standard))Receipt
2025-07-2135/42source

Receipts · 3

Ledger history
  • 2026-08-17: Target date 2029 is in the future, so the verdict is capped at on-track/partial. Two recognized-domain evidence items with different origin_orgs (>=1 measurement) document concrete positive progress…
  • 2026-11-03: The verdict 'on-track' remains correct (target 2029 is in the future). A fresh read of the Google DeepMind source confirms the concrete IMO 2025 measurement of progress toward human-level…

Every verdict on the ledger is graded against dated, archived third-party evidence and blind-verified by two independent models.

CiteAI Forecast Ledger, “Turing test passed by 2029” (Ray Kurzweil, 2024-06), https://aiforecastledger.com/claims/kurzweil-turing-test-by-2029.html, last reviewed 2026-11-03. CC BY 4.0.