AI Forecast Ledger
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Case file No. 08 · AI Forecast Ledger

On tracktimelines

AI reaches human-level intelligence and passes the Turing test by 2029

On track · due 2029

3 receiptsOpen verificationClose

On track

Rigorous adversarial Turing-test passunknown — no accepted rigorous adversarial Turing-test pass on record

Verified blind: GLM-5.2 + Grok — agree

How it's graded

Met if before end of 2029 an AI passes a rigorous adversarial Turing test (expert judges, extended sessions) or an equivalent accepted human-level-intelligence demonstration; failed otherwise

Receipts · 3

Ledger history
  • 2026-08-17: Target date 2029 is in the future, so the verdict is capped at on-track/partial. Two recognized-domain evidence items with different origin_orgs (>=1 measurement) document concrete positive progress…

Every verdict on the ledger is graded against dated, archived third-party evidence and blind-verified by two independent models.