Pending
The first weakly general AI system is publicly announced around 2028
Source of the original statement not yet on the record.
- Claimed
- 2020
- Deadline
- 2028
Metaculus community forecast
Aggregate forecast of an online forecasting platform
Not ranked yet: 0 settled · 1 forecast on the ledger
A forecaster is ranked once three of their forecasts have settled (hit or missed). Open and contested forecasts are not counted.
Who they are
Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. Its community forecast on a question is aggregated from the most recent prediction of each forecaster taking part.
Source: Metaculus FAQ, checked 13 Oct 2026