Founder of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute
Not ranked yet: 1 settled · 1 forecast on the ledger
A forecaster is ranked once three of their forecasts have settled (hit or missed). Open and contested forecasts are not counted.
Eliezer Yudkowsky is an American artificial intelligence researcher and writer on decision theory and ethics, known for popularizing ideas related to friendly artificial intelligence. He is the founder of, and a research fellow at, the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), a private research nonprofit in Berkeley, California.
Source: Wikipedia, checked 13 Oct 2026
On the record in LessWrong — IMO challenge bet with Eliezer (Paul Christiano) · published 25 Feb 2022
“So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls etc. of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.”